appropriate projection for the following year, Australian Bureau

appropriate
health service or lack of management of existing service to meet the health demand
of the future population.

To
develop population projection for the following year, Australian Bureau of
Statistics (2013) has made assumptions about future level of fertility,
mortality, internal and overseas migration to the base population. It is
because growth or decline in population is determined by those demographic
factors (Bremner, Clifton and Kaneda 2014). However these assumptions may not
always be assured to be certain though it is based on research and opinion from
experts. Assurance of population projection is affected by estimation of
present base population and also the duration of projection which means shorter
duration projections are more likely to be accurate than longer duration
because inaccurate assumption may create compounding effects in inaccuracies of
assumptions (Population Reference Bureau 2005).For projecting health service
needs, population projection plays an important role. The rationale behind this
is, in order to develop new services, it is necessary to understand the type of
population for whom those services are being developed and also without proper
projection of needs, health service planning is not effective(Divisha 2017). For
example, for trends like rise in ageing population and accompanying health condition,
will affect the type and level of health service required (Department of Health
2012). Future need for health services are greatly determined by various
factors including disease trends and development of new technologies in
treatment.

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One of
the approach for projecting health service needs can be assessing the trend in growth
and decline of demand for health service at the level of geographic, population
and clinical area (Department of Health 2012). By determining population risk
factors (obesity, smoking, alcoholism) contributing towards health issues,
health services can be designed as per projection. Involvement of stakeholders which
can be service users, providers, government, non- government organisations and
individual, and understanding their role can also aid in approaching demand for
health service needs in future (Mishra et al 2016). Having better understanding
of the population and service environment can provide with information about
consumers of the services, their health status and the type of service they
access the most (Department of Health 2015) which guide in projecting health
service needs. There is no specific single, consistent approach for projecting
health service needs.  One of the major
approach for projecting health service needs can be through collection of
qualitative and quantitative data (Department of Health 2015). Here qualitative
data refers to data gathered through interviews, written document, observation
and consultations whereas quantitative data are collected through demographic,
epidemiological data, facility and health service usage data and cost and effectiveness
of various health services. Qualitative approach gives subjective data which
can be more accurate as it provides direct response from the service users and
providers. But this does not mean that quantitative approach is not useful. In
fact it provides objective data. Thus qualitative and quantitative data
collection can be considered effective approach in health service need
projection where the demand and supply for services can be determined very
easily.

According
to international health facility guidelines 2014, trend extrapolation,
benchmarking and population-specific computer modelling are the common approaches
of projecting health service needs. Blackwell encyclopaedia of management
defines trend extrapolation as technique of forecasting the demand and supply
of resources which are based on set of observations at successive time (Cooper
2018). This approach can aid in maintaining equilibrium between the demand and
supply of health service needs, resulting in cost effective delivery of
services. Benchmarking refers to the process of identifying the best practice
followed by proposal of best performance needed to bring into action in future
(Kay 2007). Here past experience is used to generate best possible performance
for meeting the needs of health services. Population-specific computer
modelling is considered to be most accurate approach for service need
projection where projections are made about population by service type, modes
and specialities by healthcare activity and resources (International Health
Facility Guidelines 2014). For this method, satisfactory health access,
outcomes and cost for healthcare activity of reference population are made as
reference data. This approach identifies the type of service to be delivered to
different population groups and the mode of service delivery leading to cost
effective utilization of health service planning.

Guide to health service
planning 2015 describes identification of indicators of need as approach for
projecting health service planning. Those needs are: Felt needs (told by
people), expressed need (identified by service utilization pattern), normative
need (identified by expert opinion) and comparative need (identified by
comparing services). In order to assess these needs, it requires to review
information collected through